Obama's Vice Presidential Choices - Who's Best?
There's a lot of talk immediately after the nomination about whether or not Hillary Clinton should be Barack Obama's choice for Vice President. The problem is that with her actions and bullying speech on the night that should have been all about the first black Presidential nominee in American history, Hillary gave a speech that suggested she may not release her delegates, and the night came about her, not him.
Many commentators on the mainstream news even commented on the perceived brashness of Hillary, who should have given this night to Obama and made any announcements the next day. It seemed that as Obama gave an open door to allowing the possibility of such a ticket, Hillary tried to force her way onto the #2 spot and may have very well slammed the door shut as a result.
This may have been surprising to some, even to Democrats, but I have to wonder about all this anger and all the arguing that Hillary's supporters won't dare support Obama. Will a lot of Democratic women really vote for McCain, who will almost certainly look to overturn Roe vs. Wade for his party's political base? With several months to simmer down, will workers really want more of the same economic policies, voting for a candidate who has even said that he doesn't know much about economics? If the anger is really this deep, if Clinton has poisoned the well this much (and there is no denying that - she has poisoned the well hoping to help her position by doing so), will having Hillary as VP even get those votes back anyway? I'm not sure they will.
A lot can happen between now and election. With focus soon to turn back on McCain, a lot of the crap that's slid under the radar is going to come to light, and it's not hard to see him taking a hit since there's no more free ride. Also, the debates will be interesting. The Clintons forced Obama to become a great debater, especially as a "counter-puncher." If McCain comes after Obama in debates, it's going to play into Obama's hands.
Most years the Vice Presidential nominations are badly overrated, but this year for both sides I think it truly might be the weight that tips the scale. So here's the review on known possibilities for Barack Obama, with a post on John McCain to follow later.
#1: Senator Hillary Clinton, New York. I'm going to say right away, I was a big fan of Bill Clinton as President until his last couple years, but I was never convinced that Hillary would be a great candidate, and I don't think she's a good choice at all for VP. First of all, there's no guarantee she'll bring in a lot of woman voters, or blue collars, since the second name on the ticket has less power than the first (see Senator John Edwards from 2004). What it comes down to for me is this: she brings no states into play in what could be a very close election, and there's a ton of baggage - plus by trying to force herself on the ticket, if Obama chose her, it would look like he was giving in, furthering questions of whether he can lead or not. Clinton brings baggage, but there's only the possibility of her bringing in extra votes.
#2: Governor Tim Kaine, Virginia. Virginia has become what some are now calling "Purple States," that are more conservative, but edging Democrat more and more often. Kaine is a democratic governor who could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to Obama, and that would be a strong team who could make a serious run at North and South Carolina, as well. Kaine fits in as a young dynamic governor who can work across party lines and still represent change.
#3: Governor Bill Richardson, New Mexico. Personally, I would love this choice. Richardson is likable, has an extremely impressive resume experience wise (including foreign policy), and he would deliver New Mexico (5 electoral votes) and put Nevada (5) and Colorado (9) into pretty strong play. His favor with Hispanic voters could even go so far as to give Obama a better shot at Florida (27), and would provide a truly dynamic ticket.
#4: Senator Chuck Hagel, Nebraska. This is especially intriguing since Hagel is a Republican. If he could deliver Nebraska (5 electoral votes), and be a strong influence in Iowa where Obama looks good as is. This cross party ticket could cause independents and disenfranchised Republicans to flock to this ticket.
#5: Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas. She's a moderate Democratic governor in an incredibly red state. Charismatic, popular, she would be great on a change ticket, but with how things have developed, she could be seen as a blatant slight at Hillary, and may not be able to deliver Kansas.
#6: Governor Ed Rendell, Pennslyvania. He's a popular governor of a critical state that Republicans think might be in play this November. He could solidify Pennslyvania as a blue state, and might be a familiar name for nearby Ohio.
There are other options, and John Edwards would be a great one, except he's already taken his name off the ballot. Kerry lost 286-252, and 270 is the magic number. What could be encouraging to Democrats is assuming they lost both Florida and Ohio again, they would still have a decent chance to win, because every state they win that they didn't in 2004 not only adds electoral votes, but takes them away from the other side. A swing of 17 electoral votes will be enough to switch it, assuming the Dems can hold their previous states. Not a guarantee, but not out of the question.
17 electoral votes isn't a lot as a swing, which is why the VP choice is important. Considering how close Iowa was last time, and how popular Obama is there vs. McCain who has no previous presence, there's a good chance Iowa goes blue. That would make it a switch to 279-259 off the bat, meaning only 10 more would be needed. Any two state combination of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, or North Carolina would do it, which is why Hillary may not be a good choice.
In a close election, 5 electoral votes could be the difference between victory and defeat. Those are five of the top choices for Obama for Vice President. Coming soon: Preview of John McCain's possible choices.
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